I discovered an article named 8 predictions for the world in 2030 and here I am about to comment on the statements in the article. The ultimate goal of this blogpost written now in 2017 is to return to it in 2030, thus giving myself sort of feedback how wrong or right was my mental model in 2017.
I. All products will have become services.
This may ultimately happen, but not in 2030. Actually, in 2030 there will be more privately owner cars than in 2017. I agree that e.g. the car-as-service paradigm will be already strong at the time, but there are lot of cars to be bought privately in 2017 which will be perfectly working in 2030 and beyond.
II. There is a global price on carbon.
I disagree. I think this “unite and deal with the global warming” trend will fade away and as resources like water will became more scarse, we will turn once again to selfish nations fighting each other – I see no place for global carbon market in such scenario.
III. US dominance is over. We have a handful of global powers. Instead of a single force, a handful of countries – the U.S., Russia, China, Germany, India and Japan chief among them – show semi-imperial tendencies.
I agree on lower U.S. influence in 2030 compared to today. I disagree on Russia. In 2030 the Russia may be already deep in inter-ethnic chaos and local wars as was Yougoslavia in the 1990s, or at best the country will experience deep economical stagnation.
IV. Farewell hospital, hello home-spital.
Have no idea.
V. We are eating much less meat.
Highly unlikely, at least in Slovakia in 2030. I expect the artificial meat may be already mass produced and available in 2030 and people will consume it instead of real meat. But we will consume it mainly for economical reasons, not due to ecological awareness or animal suffering.
VI. Today’s Syrian refugees, 2030’s CEOs. Highly educated Syrian refugees will have come of age by 2030, making the case for the economic integration of those who have been forced to flee conflict.
I disagree. There were millions of Afgan refugees in the past 20 years and I do not see any Afgan CEOs talking on how to integrate Afgan refugees more effectively.
VII. The values that built the West will have been tested to breaking point.
VIII. “By the 2030s, we’ll be ready to move humans toward the Red Planet.”
I disagree. Once our technology will be so advanced that we could think of driving people to Mars, the robots will be already there. I do not see the economical reason to send people to Mars, robots will be many times cheaper. It is possible that in 100 years humans will ultimately need to go to Mars, however not due to economical reasons, but because Earth turns uninhabitable.
And one last prediction – I expect github will be still alive in 2030 and thus serving this blog, but the weforum.org portal may be dead at the time and that is why I rather store the original article here as well :)